Kohl & Partner Fact Checks Winter Season 2025/2026: Solid Starting Position In The Alpine Region
With the start of the winter season and the first snowfalls in the alpine destinations, winter 2025/26 has begun. At the same time, current weather forecasts indicate mild temperatures until Christmas. Experience shows that this can influence short-term booking behavior in the early stages of the season. Therefore, a fact-based look at current booking levels and prices is all the more important.
The analysis is based on a joint fact check by Kohl > Partner and RateBoard.
Demand development: Alpine region above previous year – dynamics vary regionally
The Alpine region is currently performing above the level of the previous year. Average occupancy is rising from 34% to 39%. This indicates an improved demand base for the winter season of 2025/26.
Within the Alpine region, significant differences are apparent: Tyrol achieves the highest current occupancy rate at 49% and also records the strongest increase compared to the previous year at +8%. South Tyrol improves to 39% occupancy (+4.9%), placing it in the middle of the pack within the Alpine region. Bavaria shows only moderate growth at 27% and remains significantly behind the two core Alpine regions.
Price enforcement: Increase observed, pricing power varies regionally
Price enforcement across the Alpine region also shows an overall increase. The average room rate rose from €327 to €350 (+7%). South Tyrol confirms its position as the price leader with an average ADR of €371 (+9%). Besides its generally strong market position, the international attention surrounding the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan-Cortina likely also plays a role. Tyrol achieves an average room rate of €367 (+4%). At €245, the ADR in Bavaria remains significantly below the Alpine level, but with an increase of 5%, it demonstrates stable price dynamics.
Conclusion: Solid starting position with positive trends and increasing differentiation between destinations.
The booking forecast for winter 2025/26 shows a stable but differentiated market environment. Demand and average prices are higher than last year, while the price gap between destinations continues to widen.
From the perspective of Thomas Steiner, Managing Partner of Kohl > Partner, the current booking situation provides a stable starting point, but does not replace active business management: “Booking levels are a good foundation, but the decisive factor for the season's success is the result. The continuing high cost structure makes ongoing controlling essential. Only by considering revenues and costs together and identifying deviations early on can the season be concluded successfully from a financial perspective.”
Matthias Trenkwalder, Managing Director of RateBoard, points to the operational perspective and the importance of data-driven management throughout the season: “ The data shows that a significant portion of demand continues to be decided at short notice. It will therefore be crucial for businesses to continuously adjust booking windows, price levels, and availability to actual demand and to regularly update forecasts. ”
