Swiss Tourism Remains On Course Thanks To New Growth Markets
Demand in Swiss tourism is expected to continue rising this coming winter. According to tourism forecasts by BAK Economics, commissioned by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), 18.7 million overnight stays are expected for the winter season (+161,000, +0.9% compared to 2024/25). Growth from the USA is slowing, and demand from Asia remains weak. However, other source markets such as Australia, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico are gaining importance in the long term and are among the most significant growth drivers among long-haul markets.
Swiss tourism benefited from major events and strong domestic demand.
In the summer of 2025, Switzerland recorded another record high with 25 million overnight stays. This marked the fifth consecutive year of positive growth since 2021. In addition to the continued high level of travel demand, several special factors contributed to the record result. Major events, in particular, provided strong impetus. The UEFA Women's European Championship drew numerous fans to Switzerland and led to a 36 percent increase in overnight stays by British tourists in July, especially in the host cities and neighboring cantons. The Eurovision Song Contest in Basel also had a positive impact on demand. Overall, the number of European visitors increased significantly, boosted by the stable euro exchange rate and favorable weather conditions. Domestic visitors also benefited from these conditions, with demand rising considerably for the first time in a long while. In contrast, demand growth from long-haul markets, particularly the USA, cooled noticeably.
Winter 2025/26: Growth slows down
BAK Economics expects moderate growth in overnight stays of 0.9 percent (+161,000) for the coming winter. Compared to the summer, demand growth is weakening due to the absence of several special factors. The beginning of last winter saw exceptionally good weather conditions, which are unlikely to be repeated.
Domestic demand remains high overall, but presents a mixed picture. The economic situation remains weak, and unemployment is expected to rise slightly. At the same time, low inflation is easing the burden on households and creating more flexibility in travel budgets. Although consumer sentiment is generally subdued, people are assessing their own financial situation more positively. Domestic demand is expected to grow by 0.5 percent (+45,000).
Despite the weak economy, European visitors have recently shown remarkable resilience, and this trend is expected to continue through the winter. While the Swiss franc remains highly valued, it has barely appreciated so far this year despite geopolitical tensions. With only minor changes expected in interest rates, the euro exchange rate should also remain stable. Overnight stays by European visitors are forecast to increase by 0.9 percent (+48,000).
Growth in long-haul markets is slowing significantly. For the first time since 2021, growth in US visitors is not expected to reach double digits this winter.
The main reasons are the sharp depreciation of the US dollar and the negative consequences of US tariff policy, which primarily burden the domestic economy. Nevertheless, further growth is expected, as US travelers tend to be less price-sensitive and have historically reacted little to weaker economic periods. Growth from Asia is also likely to remain subdued. Overall, BAK Economics expects growth of 1.9 percent (+68,000) for long-haul markets.
Summer 2026: The effects of trade policy reach tourists
BAK Economics anticipates a further slowdown in growth for summer 2026. The main reason is the economic impact of the US tariffs, which will affect consumers with some delay and are likely to dampen travel activity. As a result, domestic and European demand will also develop only sluggishly. Growth will be primarily driven by long-haul markets, with the focus shifting more strongly to new growth markets due to the weakness in the US and Asia.
The transformation of long-haul markets
The analysis of long-haul market developments reveals a clear structural shift. Excluding the USA, the main growth drivers in the 2010s were Asian countries, particularly China, but also India and Southeast Asian nations. This picture has fundamentally changed. Many of these countries have still not reached the levels of 2019. Instead, other markets are now among the key drivers of growth. These include emerging economies such as Brazil and Mexico, as well as English-speaking countries like Canada and Australia. This is leading to an increasingly diverse visitor profile for Swiss tourism. For destinations, this presents a more complex challenge, but also new opportunities, such as altered travel patterns and a better distribution of demand throughout the year.
