Destimetrics - Summer Finishes Modestly; Winter Bookings Are Flat As Daily Rates Edge Up
The 2025 summer season closed on Oct. 31 in much better shape than it started and wrapped up with moderate gains in occupancy, rates, and seasonal revenue. Attention is now sharply focused on the coming winter season and the pivotal role that economic conditions will play—along with the always crucial snowfall. In the most recent monthly Market Briefing from DestiMetrics that includes data from approximately 28,000 lodging units in 17 mountain communities across seven states and released by Inntopia, finalized summer data dug deeply into the coming season. As of Oct. 31, the pre-Thanksgiving and pre-Christmas periods are currently looking strong while occupancy softens in the week between Christmas and New Year’s and into early January as rate resilience among some guests contrasts with price-sensitivity among others. And while international visitation is still down sharply, particularly from Canada, things have improved since the summer.
“Although it is still relatively early in the booking season, resorts are poised for a good start to the season with some high-quality bookings for the pre-holiday periods despite a relatively flat booking pace during October,” reported Tom Foley, director of Business Intelligence for Inntopia. “But there is no question that the economic ‘wild card’ has the potential to be wilder than usual this season, while weather has the opportunity, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, to be cold and snowy–although early evidence of that is varied across the country so far.”
October closes summer season
October occupancy softened but ultimately finished up enough to help deliver season high revenue. Bookings in October for arrivals in that month were down compared to last year as many consumers pushed back against what turned out to be stronger-than-expected room rates. The result was fewer reservations—but with higher revenue quality, and occupancy was up 1.2 percent compared to last October while the Average Daily Rate (ADR) was up 4.2 percent. That boost in rate significantly bolstered the bottom-line to deliver a season-high 5.4 percent increase in revenues for the month. The mixed results during October enabled the summer season to conclude with a 1.1 percent year-over-year increase in occupancy and daily rates up 2.7 percent, while at 3.8 percent, revenue beat the most recent annual inflation rate.
All eyes on winter
Bookings made in October for arrivals in October through March resulted in a 6.6 percent gain in occupancy for those six months, with the result being a very slight decline in booking pace of 0.1 percent for the whole period. But there were appreciably different monthly results: bookings for arrivals in October, January, and February slipped down compared to last year, while November, December, and March all reported gains—most notably in November with a strong 12.8 percent increase.
Overall, the flat booking pace during October held back winter occupancy growth, and the combined results for the full winter from November through April are slightly less robust as of Oct. 31 than at the end of September. Occupancy on-the-books for those six months is down a slight 0.4 percent compared to last winter with ADR up 3.6 percent for an aggregated $695/night with increases in all six months.
“October booking pace is always critical to how the winter tees up, and sometimes it can be a mixed bag,” noted Foley. “Although bookings in October for arrivals in November, December, and March were all better this year than last, the decline in January and February slowed down seasonal progression,” he continued. “But there are two sides to this coin, and the other side is revenue. Bookings made in October for November and December arrivals were captured at a considerably higher room rate this year compared to last, and that translated into stronger overall seasonal revenue, which is where the rubber meets the road.”
Foley went on to observe that “this is also evidence of some excellent rate management that was developed during the challenging summer and may be an indication that suppliers are focusing more on the ‘right guest, right price’ rather than going for lots of guests at a lower price point,” he clarified.
Lots to watch
Demand booking pace is a straightforward measure of room nights booked during the month and takes the variances driven by shifting inventory out of the calculations for occupancy providing a pure look at how consumers behaved during the month. For arrivals from October through March, there were 1,339 more room nights booked during October for those six months compared to last year to reach a slight 0.6 percent increase in demand. Changing the equation is the number of room nights available, and for the month of October this year, an additional 13,670 room nights were available for October through March—changing the denominator which changes the percentage and more accurately reflects consumer demand.
Inventory available for rent, which is used when considering the occupancy capacity of the industry, increased during October, with 13,670 more nights available for rent as of Oct. 31 than as of Sept. 30. However, there are approximately more 24,000 fewer nights available overall for rental this year than last, an inventory deficit that is a continuation of summer trends. “Inventory shifts are very common in mountain communities, where a significant percentage of rooms are privately owned and managed and those deficits in inventory are usually due to higher owner usage,” explained Foley.
Winter occupancy softens very slightly due to a mixed booking pace and changes in available inventory—going from a very slight 0.2 percent increase as of Sept. 30 to an also very slight 0.4 percent decrease as of Oct. 31.
International winter demand is mixed by market as trade and political policies continue to have a negative impact on international bookings at mountain resorts. Bookings from Canada, the largest group of international visitors, are down a dramatic 52.9 percent year-over-year have been at this level for most of the last six months with no sign of changing. Bookings from Mexico are up 35 percent and Western Europe is up 9.6 percent while Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) is down 28.4 percent.
Holiday occupancy is currently looking positive with a few exceptions. The Thanksgiving holiday period from Nov. 21 to Dec. 5 is up 1.6 percent with Turkey Day up a healthy 7.4 percent. Pre-Christmas arrivals from Dec. 15-23 are looking solid with gains on all days while arrivals on Dec. 26, 27, and 28 are all down appreciably.
Length-of-Stay elongated during October to reach its aggregated longest length for that month since 2021—up to 2.18 nights from 2.1 nights one year ago. This is notable since it occurred in the month with typically the shortest stays of the season. Foley pointed out that “longer stays are not only a revenue win for properties but help the bottom line as the interval between room cleaning and maintenance is longer.”
Average Daily Rate (ADR) strengthened over the last month, increasing from a modest 2.3 percent year-over-year gain at the end of September to a sturdier 3.6 percent gain as of Oct. 31 with the month of February leading with an ADR of $805/night.
Catching up with the economy
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set a third consecutive all-time high monthly closing at 47,562.9 points—up 2.5 percent from September and driven by strong corporate performance in big tech companies and the much-anticipated .25 percent cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve Bank. Strength on Wall Street heartened investors as retirement accounts accumulated value but many analysts are raising red flags about the seemingly endless gains and their detachment from consumer, employer, and inflation data that show evidence of struggles.
Both the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) released by the Conference Board and the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) from the University of Michigan both slipped in October with the CCI down one point as consumers waffled between feeling better about near-term business conditions but a bit worse about the extended outlook. It is now at its lowest reading since April and at 94.6 points, marks the third time it has dipped below 95 points this year. Prices and inflation remain the top concerns. The CSI was also down in October, losing 1.5 points to finish at 53.6 points and its lowest level since May. Responses to both surveys were closely aligned and despite strength in financial markets, the overall mood of consumers remained mediocre.
Unemployment data from the government was unavailable due to the government shutdown but alternative data from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) National Employment Report provides an independent measure of the labor market. According to ADP, private sector employers added 42,000 new jobs in October and is a reversal of September’s decline of 29,000 positions. The education, health care, trade and transportation sectors led the way, but other sectors lost jobs, and the overall trend has been softer job growth. According to the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, the national unemployment rate increased in October from 4.3 to 4.4 percent and is at its highest level since October 2021.
The national inflation rate increased in September with prices up 0.3 percent from August with inflation now up three percent year-over-year but is slightly better than the expected 3.1 percent increase that was expected.
“Prices were up 4.1 percent for gasoline and 2.7 percent for airfares and increases in those categories adds pressure to consumers planning travel for the upcoming winter season,” said Foley.
“We had a mixed October that included soft bookings but great revenue for that month, early season activity with flat bookings but moderately better revenue, and an early season foundation that is looking good,” offered Foley. “Some high-yield early season bookings for Thanksgiving and pre-Christmas are doing a good job of laying a solid foundation for the months ahead,” he continued. “But winter occupancy is down slightly and so is actual demand based on shifts in available inventory. Yet, bottom-line revenue improved as those fewer bookings proved to be more rate resilient than we’ve seen lately and improvements in revenue help pad against some of the uncertainty the industry is facing in the coming months,” he added.
Foley concluded the monthly Market Briefing by observing that “while some resorts have already opened, we are well aware that economic indicators, inflationary pressures, and political mayhem are contributing to ongoing consumer caution about discretionary spending, so we’ll look for some bounty from Mother Nature to spark more booking activity in the weeks ahead.”
