Destimetrics Reports Slow Opening Across Most Western Mountain Destinations — Despite Easing Rates And ‘Last-Minute’ Snow
Mother Nature and stubborn inflation along with a weak job market conspired during December for a lackluster start to the winter season across most of the West—with a couple of exceptions. In DestiMetrics* most recent monthly Market Briefing from Inntopia, nearly non-existent snowfall across many of their 17 participating western mountain communities had a chilling effect on bookings. Limited terrain opening was the story in most locations—with less than 30 percent of terrain available in Colorado and Utah and only an aggregated 45 percent across the region. But in spite of the challenges of both sub-par conditions and some worrying economic data, as of Dec. 31, lodging properties managed to mitigate much of the negative impact—at least for December.
“We are moving into the peak months of the winter season at something of a disadvantage this year,” acknowledged Tom Foley, director of Business Intelligence for Inntopia. “While Wyoming and Montana resorts had between 73-80 percent of their terrain open as of Dec. 31, that number was much lower for the first half of the month, and conditions continued to be thin in the Central Rockies through the holidays and the end of the month. Add in higher prices in December and flagging consumer confidence, it has been tough to get consumers to commit this season,” he continued.
December managed to finish decently
Compared to last December, actual occupancy was down 2.8 percent while the Average Daily Rate (ADR) was up 2.5 percent. That rate increase helped ease the deficit from lower occupancy and revenues were down .04 percent from last December.
Winter struggling
As all eyes look upward in search of storm clouds, in the absence of typical snowfall patterns, the full winter season is softening. Occupancy in-the-bank and on-the-books for November through April is down 3.7 percent compared to last year at this time with declines being posted in all six months. But daily rates continue to rally as ADR is up 3.7 percent with increases in all months—notably April which is leading with a 10.7 percent increase over last April while February is showing a 6.2 percent increase in ADR. When combined, the aggregated result is a scant 0.1 percent decrease in aggregated revenues for the full season. However, bookings for arrivals in December through April were impacted by prevailing conditions and the booking pace for those months is down 5.8 percent compared to last year—with three months posting increases while three months are declining—most significantly a 25.9 percent decrease in December arrivals.
“While good snow materialized in mid-month in most areas—with the exception of Utah and Colorado—it was enough to change the low booking volume of the early season,” Foley pointed out. “But those consumers who did book, did so at a relatively high room rate—up 3.7 percent. The result is fewer guest but on a higher value—at least from the perspective of lodging suppliers, and that is why revenue is sitting essentially flat in the midst of a notable negative snow year,” he further clarified. “The question is whether, and how, this can be sustained if conditions in the Central and Southern Rockies don’t improve.”
Economic news and impacts
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose a moderate 0.7 percent to finish December with an all-time monthly high of 48,063.3 points and marks its eighth consecutive monthly increase buoyed by the .25-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Bank and strong corporate earnings. “Gains on Wall Street have been impressive this year with the Dow up a dramatic 13 percent in 2025,” noted Foley. “But strength on Wall Street doesn’t necessarily translate to strength on Main Street and we’ve seen in the past year that market forces such as inflation, trade concerns, and weakening employment have kept consumers wary,” he continued.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) released by the Conference Board and the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) from the University of Michigan were mixed in December with the CCI dropping a moderate 3.8 points or 4.1 percent to reach the lowest confidence reading since April 2025 and making it only the second time it has dipped below 90 points since the peak of pandemic in February 2021. In contrast, the CSI edged up a slight 1.9 points and recorded its first increase since July and only the second increase in 2025. The CSI is currently 28.5 percent lower than it was in December 2024. Consumers continue to cite inflation, employment, market, and earning uncertainty for their weak confidence.
“Declines in consumer confidence and sentiment impact the ability of lodging properties to adjust rates up without impacting occupancy,” explained Foley. We see guests paying higher prices at mountain resorts in December more than last year at this time but there are a lot fewer of them—and that can have a potentially negative impact on non-lodging businesses such as retail, recreation, food and beverage,” he added.
Job creation and the national Unemployment Rate continued to soften in December as employers added 50,000 jobs to payrolls during the month while unemployment declined slightly from 4.6 to 4.4 percent. For 2025, a total of 584,000 jobs were added for an average of 49,000/month. This is dramatically lower than 2024 when 2.2 million jobs were added—approximately 183,000/month.
Keeping a close eye on
Snowfall improved during the second half of December but very selectively with the Cascades, the Sierras, and Northern Rockies capturing good snowfall while much of Colorado and Utah missed out. As the season progresses, decent snowfall, as always, will play a pivotal role in the outcome of the season.
Christmas holiday finished weakly as the traditionally high rates for the period were even less attractive due to the lack of snow. Christmas day was down 8.3 percent and the week between Christmas and New Year’s was down an average of 4.8 percent
Occupancy and demand booking pace recovered in December from a dismal November as the arrival of snow mid-month sparked consumer interest in booking, but both remained down compared to December 2024. Occupancy booking pace (actual occupancy gains or declines booked in the month for all months) rose from a deficit of 19.8 percent in November to a 5.8 percent deficit for the season in December. Occupancy demand (measures actual room nights booked and takes inventory changes out of the equation), also rebounded from a 19.2 percent deficit in November to a 7.2 percent deficit in December.
“Consecutive declines in booking pace have a cumulative long-term impact on the months ahead as occupancy levels fail to keep up with the prior year. The only way to recover those losses without deep rate cuts or big package offers is a strong snow incentive—powder days and bluebird skies,” admitted Foley. “And that is the Achilles heel of the ski and snowboard industry—dependence on the whims of Mother Nature.”
International winter demand still mixed, still down with overall bookings from international markets down 33.4 percent—somewhat deeper than last month’s 30.6 percent reading. Bookings from Western Europe flipped from a positive gain of 3.3 percent at the end of November to a 7.4 percent decline at the end of December. Canada is showing slight improvement for the second consecutive month moving from a deficit of 43.9 last month to a 41.5 percent deficit this month. Oceania dropped steeply and is now down 36.8 percent while Mexico, the only international market measuring improvements, has gone from a 24.3 percent increase in November to a more modest 14.1 percent gain at the end of December.
Booking lead-times continued to extend during December as consumers deferred their mountain trips with the expectation of more reliable snow conditions later in the season. Lead time for bookings made in December were about 2.9 days (seven percent) longer than one year ago.
Properties in all pricing categories lost ground in December—as all three categories slightly reduced rates but not sufficiently to increase occupancy. Economy properties up to $450/night lowered rates by 1.3 percent and lost 0.3 percent in seasonal occupancy. Moderate properties priced from $451 to $900/night also eased rates a scant 0.3 percentage points but lost 0.5 percent in occupancy. Luxury properties over $901/night were not immune to the trend and their 0.2 percent dip in ADR led to a 1.5 percent decrease in occupancy.
“A very late start to the season in many, but not all, western mountain resorts created a challenging narrative for lodging properties as they balanced managing the bottom line with price-conscious consumers,” Foley observed. “While room rates that outpace inflation may shut out more value-conscious consumers, lodging properties are adopting the ‘less is more’ approach and are willing to accept fewer stays in exchange for higher price points, reducing their expenses while capturing enough in daily rates to keep revenue steady during what is shaping up to be a potentially tough season. For now, widespread and abundant snowfall along with some good economic news would do a lot to ease consumer hesitancy and put the entire mountain industry in a more optimistic position for the remainder of the season,” Foley concluded.
